Freshman Contracts: The Biggest Recruiting Advantage Nobody is Talking About

Leverage is everything. Historically, a high school player’s value was derived from their talent and clout. It wasn’t that long ago when the most prestigious headline a school could garner was, “We have the #1 recruiting class in the country!” Even landing a single top 100 player felt like winning the lottery. But those days are done. 

High school prospects will always be essential to a school's viability, but they’re no longer the most valuable. They’re not even the second, third or fourth most valuable. The game has changed. But behind every problem is an even bigger opportunity. 

How We Got Here

It’s not difficult to see why high school players got bumped down on the totem pole revenue share, transfer portal, conference realignment, COVID years, antitrust suits, fifth year eligibility, the list goes on. It’s just difficult to strategize. 

College sports are now pro sports, just decades behind. Upperclassmen aren’t upperclassmen, they’re veterans; freshmen aren’t freshmen, they’re rookies; the transfer portal isn’t a portal, it’s free agency; and high school recruiting isn’t recruiting, it’s a draft! 

It’s here now. And the next wave of high school prospects are going to be challenged with finding a great college experience through the lens of professionalism. A process that’ll feel tricky, to say the least. But there is leverage incoming freshmen have that upperclassmen don’t.

The Value of Rookie Contracts

Draft picks are one of the most valuable assets in pro sports because rookies can only make a fraction of what veterans can make. Players are only eligible for max contracts after their rookie contract expires (1-3 years), which creates a finite window for a franchise to sign better, more expensive players. 

You see it in the NFL when big-time quarterbacks on rookie salaries can make deep playoff runs (e.g., Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix or Tom Brady). Or how Victor Wembanyama can make the Spurs a title contender in just his third season. A talented player on a rookie contract is arguably the most valuable asset a franchise can have, which is why draft picks have so much leverage. 

Division I schools work the same way. A typical BCS Women’s basketball program typically receives 3% to 5% of their school’s revenue share budget let’s call it $1.5 million which operates as a “soft cap.” In today’s market, it’s quite common for ONE All-Conference transfer portal player to be worth anywhere from $250,000 - $750,000, so schools can’t afford to pay multiple through revenue share alone. 

A school can pay athletes through NIL deals, but those deals are heavily scrutinized by the NCAA. Outside of the top 1% of BCS players, it’s very difficult (if not impossible) to pay a player $100,000+ in NIL. 

So what does this mean for young prospects? High-impact, low-cost freshmen will be one of the most valuable commodities on the market.

Maximize your Leverage as an Incoming Freshman

Picking the right fit has never been more important. Freshmen on affordable deals who make an immediate impact will be worth significantly more as a sophomore. Conversely, freshmen who underperform or don’t play will be worth significantly less. 

If you are coming into your college freshman year in the next year or two, here are a few things to consider: 

First, be emotionally mature enough to handle the challenges in college basketball. Invest in interpersonal skills like executive presence training and public speaking. Develop an authentic personality that draws people in. Take mindfulness training. Value the things that college coaches value, and the money will follow. You’re competing against 22-year-old seniors, so start building your maturity portfolio now. 

Two, pick a place that will put their arm around you through hard times. The downside of making $150,000+ is that you have immense pressure to produce. For many incoming freshmen, the smarter move will be to take less (if necessary) to go to a place that you can develop and play through mistakes. It is very common for kids in these situations to make 50%-75% more money in year two. 

Three, find a place that gives you joy. Unless you’re a 4- or 5-star kid, you’re likely coming in on a minimum level contract anyway, so pick a place that makes you happy. The more fun you have, the better you play. And the better you play, the more money you’ll make.

When incoming freshmen think of themselves as rookies, it opens up an entirely new advantage over juniors and seniors. If you want the bag, play the long game. Train smart. Develop your maturity. And chase fit. If you want to chase money, that’s your call, but you’re only going to end up like that poor dog who thinks he can chase down a car.